Realistic scenario
The 27 scenarios – 2027 bottles
Total doors by month – 3 scenarios
Where the doors come from
Bottles per month – selected scenario
Our DCs on the map
Click a DC pin (or a state) to see its area, our stores, its targets and whether it leans to chains or independents. Switch between the KeHE and UNFI layers.
Chains or independents? – by DC
Chain doors = target chain stores in the area + our current chain stores + The Fresh Market (UNFI). Independents = organic food stores in the area (market size, poidata.io) + our current independents. Share = chain doors ÷ (chain doors + independents).
Opportunities – every store and chain
All FIRMA-fit chains and independent stores we found, per DC, for KeHE and UNFI. Retail only – no convenience, mass, discount, online or wholesalers. Every row has its source.
Signature 250 ml targets – Tier A only
Only specialty / gourmet stores where a $24–25 bottle fits. Chains win at the chain rate (10 / 20 / 30%) from July–December 2027; independent stores win at the independent rate (10 / 40 / 60%), spread by month. The Fresh Market and Albertsons are counted separately. Change the store counts per DC here; they are saved like all other inputs.
Target list
Targets per DC
Which stores and chains we go after in each DC, and how they were chosen.
How a target is chosen
- Fits FIRMA: organic / natural / co-op, or premium–gourmet for Signature.
- Not a conventional supermarket, unless our broker is pitching it (Lowes Foods, Hannaford, Big Y, Market Basket, Harris Teeter).
- Reachable through a DC that carries FIRMA. Premium chains served by KeHE DCs without FIRMA (Gelson's, Kings, Metropolitan Market, Market District) stay targets with a note.
- Not already ours (target doors = chain stores − our stores).
- Not Albertsons or The Fresh Market – they are known 2027 doors.
- A store in both KeHE and UNFI counts once, in KeHE.
How targets become doors
- Independents: target × win rate 10 / 40 / 60%, spread evenly by month from the DC start month.
- Chains: doors × win rate 10 / 20 / 30%, from the on-shelf month (reset month; else review + 5 months; else July–December).
- Local chains (one DC) count in their DC; big chains (several DCs) count once.
- Target base for independents: named stores by default; switch to whole market or team capacity in Inputs.
2027 review calendar (from Celtic)
Other target chains: review date to ask the broker – they count July–December 2027 until a date is known (edit on the Chains page).
Doors by DC
Each DC line = our current stores there + new independent stores + local chains (chains whose stores are all in that one DC). Big chains in several DCs are counted once, on their own line. Numbers are expected doors (win rate × target), rounded.
Target chains
Every target chain, counted once. Edit doors, review month or reset month in the table and the whole plan updates. On-shelf month = reset month; else review month + the gap in Inputs; else spread over the second half of 2027.
Bottles per month
Bottles sold to stores = doors carrying the product × speed (bottles per store per week) × 4.33 + opening orders (6 per new store per product). Organic 500 ml: 0.74 / 1.78 / 3 per week. Signature 250 ml: 0 / 1 / 2 (The Fresh Market and Albertsons 0.5 / 1 / 2). Who carries Signature: The Fresh Market, Albertsons, and Tier A gourmet stores only (our 7 current gourmet stores + the Signature targets list). The table follows the 3 choices at the top.
Inventory plan
What KeHE and UNFI will order from us (their POs), what leaves Chicago and Austin, when to order from Tunisia, and the stock left at the end of each month. KeHE and UNFI decide their own POs – this plan estimates them: they reorder when a DC falls to the "replenishment" weeks in Inputs.
What to do
Chicago stock by month
Tunisia orders arrive in the month after the lead time (65 days → 3 months later, rounded up to be safe). Shipments to DCs and Austin are made one month ahead. Not counted: Amazon, website and markets – add their monthly use in Inputs if they take bottles from the same stock.
Inputs
Change any number – every page recalculates at once. Your changes are kept in this browser.
Update with Excel
Upload any of these – the center recognises them by itself:
• The inputs file you downloaded here, after changing numbers in Excel (Settings, Chains, DC targets tabs).
• KeHE "Inventory Stock Status" report → updates KeHE DC stock and on-order quantities.
• Inventory masterhub → updates Chicago and Austin stock.
Independent target per DC
Method & rules
What the plan counts, how, and where every number comes from. Agreed with Maram, Oct 22–23, 2026.
How the numbers are calculated – step by step
- Doors. Our 141 stores + new independents (target × win rate, spread by month) + new chains (doors × win rate, from their on-shelf month) + Albertsons (180, January) + The Fresh Market (172, February). See Doors by DC and Chains.
- Which doors carry which product. Organic: every door except The Fresh Market. Signature: The Fresh Market, Albertsons, and only Tier A gourmet stores – our 7 current gourmet stores and the Tier A target list (234 chain stores at the chain rate, 47 independent stores at the independent rate).
- 27 scenarios. Three separate choices: (1) Assumption = how many stores we win (Pessimistic / Realistic / Optimistic); (2) Organic speed = Low 0.74 (today's real average, KeHE Oct 23) / Medium 1.78 (our best DC, DC16) / High 3 (stretch goal) bottles per store per week; (3) Signature speed = Low 0 / Medium 1 / High 2 (The Fresh Market + Albertsons 0.5 / 1 / 2). 3 × 3 × 3 = 27. Organic speed changes only Organic; Signature speed changes only Signature.
- Bottles sold in stores each month = doors carrying the product × speed (bottles per store per week) × 4.33 weeks.
- Opening orders = new doors that month × 6 bottles (1 case) per product.
- Demand = bottles sold + opening orders. This is what the Overview cards and the Bottles page show.
- POs to us. KeHE / UNFI reorder when a DC falls to the replenishment level (6 weeks on hand) and order up to ~10 weeks of sales (their decision – an estimate). Shown on the Inventory page.
- Our warehouses. Stock at month end = start + arrivals from Tunisia − shipments to KeHE / UNFI (Chicago also refills Austin for The Fresh Market).
- Tunisia orders. When Chicago would fall below the margin (2 months of shipments), the plan orders enough for the next months, 65 days ahead (counted as 3 months to be safe).
2027 demand – how it adds up
Every figure here is live: change a speed, win rate or door count in Inputs and this table recalculates.
- Retail only. No convenience, mass, discount, online stores or wholesalers.
- FIRMA fit: organic, natural, co-ops and quality stores; premium and gourmet stores for Signature.
- Each store counts in the DC of its own location. A store in both KeHE and UNFI is counted once, in KeHE.
- Our 141 current stores stay in every scenario.
- Albertsons (180 doors) and The Fresh Market (172 stores) are known 2027 doors, added outside the win rates.
- Win rates – independents 10 / 40 / 60%, chains 10 / 20 / 30% (pessimistic / realistic / optimistic).
- Local chains (all stores in one DC) are counted in their DC; big chains in several DCs are counted once on their own line.
- Independents arrive evenly month by month (open calendar), from each DC's start month.
- Chains arrive on their reset month; else review + 5 months; else spread July–December 2027. Hannaford: December 2027. Market Basket: optimistic only.
- Start dates: KeHE DC16/18/27 active; DC41/33/25 active by Dec 2026; UNFI from Jan 24, 2027 (counted from February).
- Expected doors: a 20% win rate on a 79-store chain counts 15.8 doors. Totals are rounded for display.
- No invented numbers. Unconfirmed values are labeled “to verify” or “assumption” and are editable.
Open points
- Are our 30 Pavilions/Vons stores inside the 180 Albertsons doors? If yes, lower Albertsons to 150 in Inputs.
- Harris Teeter: which distributor and DC would supply it? (ask Jimmy Jefferson, Celtic)
- The Fresh Market: which UNFI DC serves TN, VA, LA, AR, MS, OK?
- 2027 oil review dates for the other target chains (ask Celtic).
- Gelson's, Kings, Metropolitan Market, Market District are served by KeHE DCs without FIRMA (DC45, DC15, DC46).
- About 80 target chains have no store count yet – they count 0 doors until filled in on the Chains page.
Sources
- KeHE store report “Chains and Stores that ordered an Item” (Jan 1 – Oct 21, 2026): 141 stores, 3,312 bottles.
- KeHE “Distribution & Accounts” deck: DCs, chain customers, regional and independent accounts.
- NCG co-op list (ncg.coop); find.coop; foodbevy city guides; storelocators.com (Oct 2026); Wikipedia chain pages.
- poidata.io (Aug 2025): organic food stores by state – market size for independents.
- UNFI DCs: Supermarket News (Manchester PA, Mar 2023); Business Observer FL (Sarasota, Sep 2025); warehouse.ninja.
- Review dates: Celtic Marketing emails – Kathy Haught (Lowes Foods), David Nolan (Big Y), Dan Hughes (Hannaford, Market Basket), Jimmy Jefferson (Harris Teeter).